Days 13 & 14

Day 13 proved to be a good day. I only traded the horses as mentioned in my previous post, and managed to reach the 100 Euro mark. I promised myself that as soon as I reached 100 Euros I would withdraw the original 20 used for this challenge. And that is exactly what I did:

This means that from day 13 on I'm only playing with the profits. This made me feel very positive and it showed yesterday:

Hardly any reds which I was very happy about. In the CSKA match I was trading the correct score at HT. Unfortunately, the market turned against me and I didn't want to let it go in play, so I closed with a loss. In the Dutch match I was trying to trade the CS in play after a goal but there was hardly any liquidity so I gave up shortly after for a 9 cent loss.

Only one straight bet yesterday (everything else was scalping), and it came in the Benfica match: Benfica were 0-0 at HT against Naval. Their lineup was fairly strong despite being a cup match against a team from the second tier, so I took the 1.71 available for a Benfica win. They eventually scored with a few minutes left and I let it run as I didn't think Naval would get back into it.

Days 11 & 12

Not a lot of time to update the blog yesterday due to family reasons, but here it is... For Tuesday:

 

As you can see I decided to experiment with trading the greyhounds and some low liquidity horse races. I was never successful with these in the past and apparently nothing has changed. Managed to come out with a 4 cent profit on the dogs, and in the horses I blew away most of the profit I had built through the day in the UK races. I'll stay away from these in the future.

It was a very good day for the football though - not a single red and no punting. Mostly scalping the CS at half time and also in play, but in play was only on 2 or 3 of these.

Yesterday there was almost no footie, so most of the action was on the horses. Not a lot of time so only a few races:

I felt very relaxed and calm yesterday and this showed. Only one red trading the horses. I was patient enough to wait for the best opportunities and it paid off. Traded a couple of football matches - the Hungarian one at HT, and the Brazilian one pre-match. Misjudged that one but only got involved because there was nothing else on. Not the wisest decision.

I've been saying this often these days but today there really is NO football on today. Unless you count one English and one Ukrainian reserve matches. So, for the first time since I started the blog I really won't get involved with the football today. Maybe some horse trading in the afternoon.

Current bank:

Day 10

An interesting day yesterday:

As you can see there is a large loss there on the horses, although I could still come away with a profit at the end of the day - just. However, I thought it was very positive. Despite being a very big loss, I managed to think long term and didn't let it go in play. What happened was that I was trading at odds of around 60-65 (I usually trade on odds between 10-30) and was trying to spoof despite the small bank... Unfortunately someone came in with a LOT of money and took all my stakes. Here I didn't act as quickly as I should, as I was hoping it would come back down - basic mistake as the market was clearly against me. After waiting a few more seconds I realised I would lose even more money and took the red.

Most things went well with the football. I guess I'm just not very good at punting, despite studying the matches in detail I still lost both punts yesterday in the Belgium U21 - England U21 and the Cayman Islands - Dominican Rep matches (ok, I have no clue about the teams in that second one but the stats clearly pointed to a Dominican Rep. win). Since I started the blog, these bets are down by 3.86 Euros.

The scalping once again went well. I got caught by the 2nd goal in the Ireland-Liechtenstein game, but I still reduced my red there at HT. I was trying to scalp the current score in play using small stakes, as there were huge gaps between the prices, and the prices were at very high odds.

Current bank:

A lot more opportunities in the football today. I'm unsure on wether to try some CS dutching as despite being clearly in profit since I've started, scalping has been working very well and doesn't require a lot of pre-match analysis. There are some good opportunities for some dutching action in the Asian games as usual, so I  will decide later. I was going to mention N. Korea - Japan but sadly it had just started!! Maybe I'll start the day with some scalping here then, just in time for HT...

Edit: Apparently all monkeys are still sleeping at this time so N. Korea - Japan hasn't gone in play... Ah well, free morning!

Days 8 & 9

Plenty of stuff to do this weekend so not enough time to update the blog yesterday.

Here's Saturday's results:

Not a lot of action on Saturday as you can see. Two obvious mistakes though: backing my team to win despite knowing we were missing a few important players and it being a cup competition; getting involved with the England - Spain friendly just because everyone else was getting involved too. Still a small profit on the day thanks to the horses.

Sunday however went a lot better. The best day since the start of the blog:

Again only had 10 minutes for the horses, but with plenty of time last night I decided to do some scalping. The only exception was the Huelva - Las Palmas match (I dutched the CS on that one but unfortunately didn't go well). As you can see the scalping went good. The Brazilian matches have always been a gold mine for me personally when scalping. There isn't a lot of liquidity, which means that there are plenty of gaps to be taken advantage of, even at half time; but at the same time, the liquidity is just enough to keep the prices moving and not leave you with your position open for too long.

Today I will probably have some time in the afternoon, so I'll probably scalp the horses again. As for the football yet another poor day, with only the U21 qualifiers looking interesting.

Here's the bank at the end of day 9:

Day 7

Green in both the horses and the football yesterday:

Started the day on the horses with a relatively significant loss that could have affected my confidence, so I was proud to keep my cool - clawing it back after only a few races.

Onto the football: I am happy with my predictions from yesterday: the N. Korea and Portugal scorelines came in, as well as a simple backing of Ireland. 

Only the Ireland correct score let me down - I guess no one expected Estonia to collapse so spectacularly. Still I only have myself to blame for that one. I could have traded out for around 100% ROI when Ireland were still 1-0 up in the second half but decided to let it run as I had 0-2 and 1-1 covered. However, I should have just taken the profit as Estonia were one man down. That wasn't my worst decision though! The worst decision was when Ireland took a 0-2 lead and, with the 1-2 covered but not the 0-3 I let it run. I wasn't intending to let it run until the end, but with my potential ROI coming down to around 20% from 100% before the goal, I got greedy and wanted to wait for a bigger profit again. Needless to say Ireland made it 0-3 shortly after and there wasn't much I could do at that point.

At this point I was happy with how the day had gone though, but still had a look at the South American games. I couldn't believe the odds on the over 2.5 for these matches. As with the Ireland odds earlier, very very generous. The Uruguay game had odds of around 2 - both teams have been scoring for fun, past H2H with goals, Chile missing half of their key players last night... No brainer! In the other 2 games the over 2.5 wasn't such a no brainer, but again looking at past H2H I though they might be worth a punt, especially when I checked the prices and they were at around 2.4 (!) for both games. Paid off in the end, with only Colombia letting me down - still it was close at 1-1, so I think these 3 were all good value bets.

Don't have any plans for today in regards to trading - I've got family over from Portugal visiting, so probably won't trade more than a few horse races if I find the time and space to concentrate. I'll also take a look at the FA Cup games in-play I guess. You only need a few minutes to scalp at half time!

Current bank:

The target I set for November (doubling the starting bank) has almost been reached. 56 cents away now! I could probably have been more ambitious, maybe I will reassess my target for the month in a couple of days.

Day 6

Another productive day yesterday: mostly on the horses again, but the football was also green, thanks to some CS trading in the Turkey U21 - Italy U21 match.

Today the football looks a bit more promising: I will be looking to dutch some CS in the Uzbekistan - N. Korea and in the Bosnia - Portugal matches. For the Uzbekistan - N. Korea match the stats indicate a low scoring game: The last two meetings between the teams only saw one goal in total, and in this qualifying round all of N.Korea's games have been under 1.5. For Uzbekistan, their last 3 matches ended under 2.5.

The Bosnia - Portugal game is a bit more complex. Firstly, because Portugal are involved and they say you shouldn't get involved in matches where the team you're supporting plays. Also, Portugal seem to be unpredictable at the moment. But I just can't ignore the facts: last time these two teams played each other both games finished under 1.5 goals. Portugal tend to play better when the going gets tough, and their defence is very solid against the better sides. I will probably be dutching 0-1, 1-1, 1-2 and 0-2 on this one, scalping 0-0 at the start and possibly 1-0 if Bosnia take the lead.

One more game that looks interesting is Estonia - Ireland. Estonia have been the surprise package of the competition so far, but I think that Ireland won't blow it in the playoffs this time. With Trap at the helm I expect Ireland to be tight at the back once more and keep a clean sheet. I am undecided on wether simply backing Ireland to win and looking to trade out during the match (the odds are generous - 2.4 at the moment), or dutching a few CS around the 0-1 scoreline (pretty much the same ones as in the Portugal match).

Current bank:

Day 5

Day 5 was a good day, however not thanks to the football. The football card was very poor, so I turned to the horse racing markets, which I sometimes do when I'm in the proper mood as it requires a lot of concentration and you must be absolutely stress free. Here's the results:

 

Regarding the horse racing trading, all of it was done pre-live. I never go in running (well, not anymore after a few mad chases in the past have led to big losses). I actually try to be out around 3 to 4 minutes before the start, as the prices start jumping around.

In the football I took a few punts: Barcelona game under 3.5 and a couple of bets on teams to win that didn't come off in the obscure Slovakian league and Polish cup. This is one of my main problems, I often get bored and get involved with games I shouldn't. The Chesterfield - Tranmere profits were the result of some pre-live scalping, and the Barcelona CS profit also came from scalping, this time at HT.

Current bank after day 5:

Remember when I said in my opening post that there are no set targets for this challenge? Well, that remains true if you look at it from a long term perspective. However, I've decided that I should at least have monthly targets: mainly because it helps me keep losses in perspective. So, I've decided that for November the target will be doubling the bank. I would say that for the moment we are right on track.