Another productive day yesterday: mostly on the horses again, but the football was also green, thanks to some CS trading in the Turkey U21 - Italy U21 match.
Today the football looks a bit more promising: I will be looking to dutch some CS in the Uzbekistan - N. Korea and in the Bosnia - Portugal matches. For the Uzbekistan - N. Korea match the stats indicate a low scoring game: The last two meetings between the teams only saw one goal in total, and in this qualifying round all of N.Korea's games have been under 1.5. For Uzbekistan, their last 3 matches ended under 2.5.
The Bosnia - Portugal game is a bit more complex. Firstly, because Portugal are involved and they say you shouldn't get involved in matches where the team you're supporting plays. Also, Portugal seem to be unpredictable at the moment. But I just can't ignore the facts: last time these two teams played each other both games finished under 1.5 goals. Portugal tend to play better when the going gets tough, and their defence is very solid against the better sides. I will probably be dutching 0-1, 1-1, 1-2 and 0-2 on this one, scalping 0-0 at the start and possibly 1-0 if Bosnia take the lead.
One more game that looks interesting is Estonia - Ireland. Estonia have been the surprise package of the competition so far, but I think that Ireland won't blow it in the playoffs this time. With Trap at the helm I expect Ireland to be tight at the back once more and keep a clean sheet. I am undecided on wether simply backing Ireland to win and looking to trade out during the match (the odds are generous - 2.4 at the moment), or dutching a few CS around the 0-1 scoreline (pretty much the same ones as in the Portugal match).
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